Beaver neighborhood

Millennials! Don’t buy Boomer homes!

Friends and Millennials, there’s another housing crisis looming on the horizon. Yes, another housing crisis. Or maybe it’s just part of one long housing crisis, and maybe we should just get used to living in crisis. (How I Stopped Worrying and Learned to Love the Housing Crisis.) Or maybe we should just get used to being told there’s another housing crisis on the horizon.

mushroomcloud

How will this market end?

Last Thursday at a party celebrating the opening of the local branch of a national mortgage lender, the manager and I were talking about the mid-Peninsula real estate scene, a scene that even real estate’s biggest boosters acknowledge is running hot. I asked the manager, who’s been an active loan agent for years, how long he thought this market will last. He eyed me warily and shot back, “What are you seeing that makes you think it’s going to end?”

rocketsbursting

The ten-year trend in mid-Peninsula home prices: up, down, mostly way up.

Is there a “mid-Peninsula real estate market”? No, just as there’s no “national real estate market”, except for the convenience of real estate’s story-tellers: journalists and economists. Occasionally you’ll run across someone who tells you that the truism that “all real estate is local” is just a smokescreen to persuade you that the bad stuff happening in other markets won’t happen here. But when you see five mid-Peninsula markets moving in four directions, it’s a convincing argument that not only is all real estate local, but that it can even be micro-local.