The big boomer sell-off is coming in 2020! Or maybe it’s “the mid to late 2020s”! Whatever! Boomers “are going to be in a real pickle”, and entire real estate markets will collapse! And you can take that to the bank!
No, this isn’t a frustrated buyer’s lurid fantasy, it’s the predictions of University of Arizona professor of Urban Planning and Real Estate Development Arthur C. Nelson. You’ve heard it all before. Millennials and boomers have sharply differing tastes in homes, the experts say, and come 2020 or the mid to late 2020s or whenever, and boomers are begging millennials to buy their homes, millennials will say “No! We reject your materialistic, low-walk-score have-to-pack-up-the-kids-and-drive-everywhere lifestyle! We scorn your sprawling wasteful McMansions! We demand convenience! We want central cities or close-in suburbs, and we want efficient smaller homes!”.
In fact, “it’s not that boomers are going to ‘age in place'” says Nelson. “They’re going to be stuck in place.” [Insert evil laugh here.]
Boomer stuck in place.
I suggest that anyone who wants to hang their buying strategy or thought-leader credentials of this theory go to a local open house, preferably a sprawling McMansion or, more preferably, a sprawling rancher that hasn’t been updated since 1951.
Boomer City Arizona, right?
Well, no. In fact, you won’t see any boomers, except as neighbors. Because boomers were priced out years ago. Heck no, you’ll see millennials. Lots and lots of millennials, and nothing but millennials. And week after week it’ll be millennials downloading disclosures and millennials checking school test scores and millennials figuring out the best way to expand that pokey little sprawling rancher and millennials making three or ten offers on those sprawling McMansions and ranchers no one wants. Because millennials just can’t get enough of them.
And because the problem with being a thought leader is that sometimes the people you’re thought-leading don’t live in your bubble. Sometimes they have a mind of their own.
copyright © John Fyten 2017