If it makes sense intuitively, it’s probably wrong.

Shortly after Facebook moved from Palo Alto to east Menlo Park in 2011, a reporter from the New York Times contacted me about the alleged effect the move was having on home prices in the adjacent city of East Palo Alto and in Menlo Park’s Belle Haven neighborhood. He’d heard that Facebook techies were driving up prices in these traditionally affordable areas. I told him I didn’t believe it, and as I told him why, I could tell that I was ruining his storyline–and my chances of getting quoted in the New York Times.